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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|